Lesson Learned: Over-leveraging on a 'sure thing' with Kalshi contracts

I had a moment of overconfidence a few months back with some Kalshi event contracts. Thought I had a pretty good read on a specific political outcome, a 'sure thing' as I convinced myself. Ended up sizing much larger than my usual risk parameters, effectively over-leveraging based on conviction. When the event unfolded slightly differently than my primary scenario, not even a complete opposite but just enough deviation, the contracts went south fast. It was a harsh reminder that even in regulated prediction markets, conviction doesn't replace sound risk management and position sizing. Never again will I let a 'sure thing' skew my discipline like that.