Kalshi for Macro vs. Micro Events
Been dabbling more in Kalshi lately, and I'm starting to think it's far better suited for broader macro events than the really granular stuff. I mean, sure, it's fun to speculate on whether a specific influencer's video hits a million views, but the market depth and, frankly, the data points for those hyper-specifics often feel thin to me. When you're talking about things like 'Will the Fed cut rates by X basis points next quarter?' or 'Will $USDCAD close above 1.4100 this week?' (given it's pinging around 1.40906 right now, that's a real time-sensitive one), the information asymmetry feels a lot less pronounced. Even something like $SPCX hitting 118.00 today after being as low as 107.01 could be an interesting contract, but trying to pick the exact intraday high for some obscure meme stock? That's just a lottery ticket in a suit. Am I alone in feeling that the 'big picture' contracts offer a much more robust and less RNG-dependent trading experience?