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ZSby u/zeynep_s·1dDiscussion

Kalshi for Macro vs. Micro Events

Been dabbling more in Kalshi lately, and I'm starting to think it's far better suited for broader macro events than the really granular stuff. I mean, sure, it's fun to speculate on whether a specific influencer's video hits a million views, but the market depth and, frankly, the data points for those hyper-specifics often feel thin to me. When you're talking about things like 'Will the Fed cut rates by X basis points next quarter?' or 'Will $USDCAD close above 1.4100 this week?' (given it's pinging around 1.40906 right now, that's a real time-sensitive one), the information asymmetry feels a lot less pronounced. Even something like $SPCX hitting 118.00 today after being as low as 107.01 could be an interesting contract, but trying to pick the exact intraday high for some obscure meme stock? That's just a lottery ticket in a suit. Am I alone in feeling that the 'big picture' contracts offer a much more robust and less RNG-dependent trading experience?

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