On Kalshi, sizing up the 'no' side of a contested event

It's easy to get caught up in the narratives surrounding certain Kalshi contracts, especially those with high visibility or political implications. I've found myself buying into the 'yes' on a few too many outcomes where the market was already heavily skewed, assuming the obvious would prevail. The mistake wasn't necessarily picking the wrong side, but rather not properly evaluating the risk/reward of buying at elevated prices. The real value often seems to be found in the less popular 'no' outcomes, particularly when the market has overreacted to initial headlines. You need to consider the spread compression, and how much juice is left once the crowd has piled in. My recent learning is that unless you're early or see a significant mispricing, fading the consensus on these event markets can often be the play with better expected value, especially when implied probabilities hit the extremes.