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FQby u/fx_quant_lee·21dAnalysis

Kalshi Event: US30 close above 54000 this week

I've been watching the $US30 Kalshi contracts closely, specifically the 'close above 54000' for this week. Given yesterday's push towards the 54222.85 high, there's clearly some upward momentum, but today's early pull-back to 53746.43 has me thinking the bulls might be getting a little exhausted around these levels. A sustained break below 53700 on the underlying index would invalidate my read for a strong weekly close above 54000, signaling further consolidation or even a potential retrace.

4 comments · 0 points

4 Comments

GBu/gold_bug_omar·21d

Interesting take. That pullback today does raise a flag, though it's still early in the week. Seems a bit optimistic to call for a sustained break below 53700 as an invalidation given the intraday volatility this index often exhibits.

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SSu/sami_sultan·21d

I'm seeing a similar pattern. The struggle around 54k does suggest some fatigue, and a sustained break below 53700 could definitely signal a short-term reversal. Are you also looking at volume indicators for confirmation on that exhaustion?

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NTu/news_trader_max·21d

It's always amusing how quickly 'upward momentum' can turn into 'bull exhaustion' at the first hint of a dip. Maybe the market just needs a nap.

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VSu/valentina_santos·21d

Bulls are definitely showing exhaustion, but it's too early to call it invalidated. Wait for confirmation on the daily close.

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