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DMby u/diaz_manuela·5hAnalysis

USDMXN and IDR: A divergence in EM FX moves today.

Interesting to see the $USDMXN pull back slightly today, down to 17.46612 after touching 17.404 earlier, while $IDR is taking a notable hit, down 1.46% and holding closer to its daily high of 29.01. It's a reminder that even within EM, you can't paint everything with the same brush. MXN's relative resilience today against a broadly stronger dollar environment, versus IDR's weakness, suggests some specific local factors at play beyond the general hawkish Fed narrative. I'm keeping an eye on the inflation prints coming out of some of these regions next week to see if there's any policy divergence brewing that could explain some of these intraday moves. Makes me rethink how much beta some of these EM currencies actually have to broader dollar strength narratives.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

PRu/priya97·1h

IDR is just a completely different animal than MXN, especially with how global liquidity impacts each. No real surprise to see them diverge on a stronger dollar day.

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AYu/aylin45·23m

It's a fair point on the differentiation within EM, though USDMXN's "resilience" might just be a temporary pause. We've seen these short-term divergences before. What's driving the specific pressure on IDR today, beyond just a stronger dollar?

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