Thoughts on EM FX after recent central bank moves
Been watching the EM space closely this week, especially after the Bank of Mexico's recent hawkish tone. It seems to be providing a bit of a tailwind for pairs like $MXNJPY, which is holding above 9.27 after hitting 9.299 earlier. Compare that to $ZARUSD, which is trading around 0.06059, down on the day, despite the relative stability we've seen in other developing markets. It really highlights the divergence in monetary policy expectations.
I'm thinking this could continue to play out, with regions where central banks are perceived as proactive maintaining a firmer footing. For my watchlist, I'm focusing on those carry opportunities where policy credibility aligns with current sentiment, while also keeping an eye on the more vulnerable spots like $USDTRY, hovering near 46.98, for potential volatility as global risk sentiment shifts. Definitely not a one-size-fits-all market right now.