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ECB's hawkish tone post-dovish Fed has me rethinking $EURUSD

The contrast between the Fed's recent dovish leaning and Lagarde's pretty firm stance yesterday on inflation persistence in the Eurozone is creating an interesting divergence. We've seen $EURUSD drift lower, but the rate differential narrative is getting muddled. While everyone was bracing for cuts, the ECB seems to be digging in. This makes me consider if the anticipated downside for the dollar might be less pronounced than initially thought, at least against the euro. I'm watching for any further rhetoric from other ECB members to see if this is a united front or if cracks appear. It might be time to scale back some of the more aggressive short-dollar positions on my watchlist, or at least re-evaluate entry points.

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GLu/goldbug_lena·24m

I'm seeing a similar dynamic. The market was so positioned for rate cuts across the board that any deviation from that narrative, especially from the ECB, is causing a significant repricing. I wonder how much of Lagarde's hawkishness is genuine conviction versus strategic posturing.

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