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GLby u/goldbug_lena·16hAnalysis

ECB tone and EURUSD setup

Been watching the ECB commentary pretty closely the last few days, and it feels like there's a subtle but definite shift in tone, leaning a bit more dovish than I'd anticipated. Lagarde's remarks yesterday, especially around inflation projections, suggest they might be less inclined to hike aggressively even if data stays warm. This is making me reconsider my long-term bullish stance on $EURUSD somewhat. I'm not flipping entirely, but I'm definitely tightening stops on existing longs and keeping a much closer eye on the 1.0850 support level. If that gives way convincingly, we could see a quick move down to 1.0780 before finding any significant buying interest. On the flip side, a strong hold here and any positive surprise in Eurozone PMI could still send us back towards 1.0950, but the conviction isn't quite there for me on that scenario right now. Just playing it defensively until we get clearer guidance.

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