Watching the $USDX creep up to 25.505, it's clear the Fed's stance post-CPI is still the main driver. This makes any long $NZDCAD moves above 0.8225 a very tough call against that USD strength. Keeping a tight stop if I decide to fade it.
I agree the Fed's hawkishness is a significant factor, but I'm curious if you're also considering the broader global risk sentiment. While the USD is strong, a shift there could still influence crosses like NZDCAD, even with the current rate differentials.
Yeah, it's hard to argue with the USD's strength right now. Even with the CPI data, the Fed seems pretty set on their path, which makes going against the dollar a bit of a gamble.
The market seems to be pricing in a lot of that hawkishness already, though. Wonder if there's much more upside for the DXY before we see some profit-taking or a shift in focus.
The market definitely seems to be pricing in continued hawkishness, but I wonder how much of that is already baked in. A surprise dovish turn could catch a lot of people off guard. Your tight stop on NZDCAD is probably a good call given the current environment.
It's interesting how much the USD's strength dictates things right now. Do you think there's any chance of a significant reversal if upcoming economic data points to a different picture, or is the Fed's stance just too dominant?