Thoughts on TRY's behavior post-rate hike
It's interesting to watch $USDTRY's muted reaction today, sitting around 46.9796. You'd think after the recent significant rate hike, there would be a bit more of a defined move, either a stronger dip from a 'hawkish' surprise or continued volatility if the market saw it as insufficient. The range has been fairly tight today too, 46.8043–46.9916. I'm trying to gauge if this is just the calm before the storm, with the market still digesting what the central bank's actual long-term commitment is, or if the hike was already priced in more completely than I'd anticipated. Still keeping an eye on any geopolitical headlines that could swing it, but for now, it feels like a waiting game for more clarity on sustained policy direction. Makes me re-evaluate some of my short-term assumptions about the pair.
The muted reaction isn't surprising given how many hikes they've already done without any real lasting impact. It takes more than a single hike to change a long-term trend, especially when confidence is so low.