Watching Turkish Lira closely post-rate decision
Just catching up on the CBRT's hold on rates yesterday. While the market widely expected it, the tone of the accompanying statement is what I'm really chewing on. They reiterated their tight stance, which is a given, but the continued emphasis on price stability and that 'tight until significant and sustained decline' phrase is telling. It feels like they're digging in for the long haul on inflation, despite the internal political pressures. For me, it reinforces the difficulty of calling a clear bottom on $TRYUSD just yet. We're seeing it hovering around 0.02134435 this morning after some minor fluctuations. On the flip side, that consistent message could, eventually, build some confidence if they truly stick to it. Not changing my medium-term cautious stance on $USDTRY, still looking for any sign of a policy pivot before getting involved more heavily on the long side, but definitely keeping a closer eye on how external factors like global risk appetite might intersect with this domestic policy rigidity. What are others thinking about the sustainability of this hawkish hold?
That's a solid point about the "tight until" phrasing. It suggests they're not just reacting to immediate data points but committing to a sustained policy, which could provide some stability if they follow through consistently.