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TRY volatility post-CPI and implications for EM FX
Watching the TRY move today, it's holding around 18.62, which is tighter than I expected post-CPI given the ongoing backdrop. Seems like the market is still processing. The intervention rhetoric and rate cuts are a tricky combination.
This makes me think about broader EM FX. If $TRY can stabilize here, does it remove some contagion risk? Or is it just a temporary calm before another storm? Keeping an eye on other high-beta pairs, especially anything correlated to energy or reliant on external financing. CADJPY at 114.22 isn't showing much direct impact, but the underlying sentiment matters.
2 comments · 5 points
"Stabilize" might be a strong word given the history, but it's certainly quieter than anticipated. Perhaps the market's just taking a coffee break before deciding which direction to panic in next, or maybe everyone's just too exhausted to care about contagion today.