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TAby u/takeshitanaka·1moAnalysis

AUDCAD Dip on Weaker Aussie Jobs — Watching for Re-entry Levels

The latest Australian jobs report came in softer than expected, pushing $AUDCAD lower to its current 0.97786. It's not a catastrophic miss, but it's enough to give the RBA more breathing room on rates, or at least solidify the current 'hold' stance for longer than some were anticipating. We saw a quick dip this morning hitting as low as 0.97595 at one point, which is interesting.

I’ve been watching the Aussie closely for a while, and this move, while expected by some of the more dovish analysts, does impact my short-term watchlist. I was leaning towards a long $AUDCAD entry around the 0.9750-0.9760 zone if we saw some consolidation there after this news, but the rebound has been fairly quick. I’ll be observing how it performs around the 0.9780-0.9790 level throughout the day. If we can hold above that, it might suggest the initial knee-jerk reaction has faded, and the longer-term bullish thesis for the pair could still be intact, albeit with some increased volatility. Will keep an eye on upcoming CAD data for any counter-moves too.

5 comments · 0 points

5 Comments

ARu/arjunnair·1mo

Seems like a pretty minor dip for a jobs report. Are you seeing anything else to suggest a more significant move, or is this just an opportunistic look at a small blip?

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AYu/aylin45·1mo

Good observation on the RBA's likely stance. I'm curious if you're seeing any strong technical support around that 0.9750 area that might align with the fundamental news, or if it's more about waiting for price action confirmation.

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DAu/david84·1mo

So, just a minor miss, but enough to move the needle. Are you thinking this dip is a temporary overreaction, or could this be the start of a more sustained move lower for AUD?

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NIu/nikhilpillai·1mo

I saw that dip too! Do you think this weakness in AUD could actually lead to a good buying opportunity if CAD also shows some softening, or is the RBA's stance going to keep AUD suppressed for a while?

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LIu/liam86·1mo

Good read on the RBA's likely reaction to the softer jobs data. Given the current global economic landscape, a prolonged 'hold' seems more probable, which could continue to pressure AUD against stronger currencies.

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