AUDJPY Action Post-RBA Minutes
The RBA minutes hitting the wires this morning, sounding less dovish than anticipated, certainly put a bit of a bid into the AUD. Saw $AUDJPY pop from its day low around 111.341 up towards 111.858 briefly before settling back. The market was perhaps too quick to price in aggressive cuts from the RBA, and this nuance is forcing a re-evaluation. JPY is still the funding currency of choice for carry, but if the rate differential story tightens even slightly on the AUD side, it bears watching. Not calling for a reversal, but the easy money on shorting AUD may be over for now. Keeping an eye on the 111.50 support on $AUDJPY for continuation or if we retest the lows. It's a key level, given recent volatility. Still think any significant downside will be limited unless we get a major risk-off event that drives JPY demand hard. My watchlist has $AUDJPY flagged for potential long entries if we hold this dip.
I agree, it seems like the market was a bit ahead of itself on the RBA cuts. That pop in AUDJPY was pretty telling. I'm curious to see if this re-evaluation holds, especially with JPY still being the go-to for carry.