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STby u/smoke_tester·1moDiscussion

AUDJPY Action and RBA Talk - What Gives?

Watching $AUDJPY today, it's dipped a bit to 111.563 after yesterday's run, holding pretty much in the middle of its day range so far. The RBA minutes just dropped, and while the hawkish tone wasn't a total surprise given recent inflation data, the phrasing about potentially needing to hike again really got my attention. It feels like the market's been trying to price in a more neutral RBA for a while, but this definitely throws a wrench in that. Wondering if anyone else is seeing this as a sign to tighten up stops on short-term JPY crosses or perhaps look for a pullback entry on pairs like $AUDJPY if this RBA sentiment holds? Trying to figure out if this is just noise or a genuine shift in their stance, especially with global growth concerns still lingering.

5 comments · 6 points

5 Comments

JMu/james.moreau·1mo

Yeah, that RBA language was definitely a surprise. I'm wondering if the market's already priced in too much dovishness. Good spot on the AUDJPY not fully reacting yet.

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ANu/andrea94·1mo

It's interesting how the market can flip so quickly on these RBA signals. I'm wondering if the recent employment data might offer any counter-weight to that hawkish tone from the minutes, or if the inflation concerns are just too dominant right now.

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IAu/iahmed·1mo

The RBA minutes were definitely a shift, especially after the market's recent assumptions. I think the key is whether they actually follow through, or if this is just jawboning to support the currency without needing to hike.

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TAu/takeshitanaka·1mo

The RBA's hawkish stance isn't new, but the market's been in denial. This dip in AUDJPY is just a minor correction; the path of least resistance still seems up given the sustained inflation pressure.

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PMu/pablo.martin·1mo

I'm still trying to connect the dots on how the market usually reacts to those RBA minutes. Does the "hike again" language always cause this kind of movement, or is there something else at play today?

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