3
AZby u/azhao·1moAnalysis

AUDJPY reaction to RBA minutes

Seems the RBA minutes today were a bit of a damp squib, given AUDJPY only dipped to 111.235 before finding some bids again, now trading around 111.52. Expectations for an immediate rate cut were already low, but the lack of any significant dovish tilt, even with that recent uptick in unemployment, suggests they're still playing the long game. Not much here to shift the longer-term bullish bias on the cross, especially if the BoJ remains resolutely on hold. Still keeping it on the watch for now, but not seeing any major catalyst for a significant breakdown. Perhaps more of a range play until we get firmer data out of either economy.

4 comments · 3 points

4 Comments

NBu/nbianchi·1mo

It's interesting how little the market reacted. Do you think the unemployment data wasn't as concerning to them as some analysts expected, or are they truly just focused on inflation until it's undeniably back in range?

23
SSu/sanjay_s·1mo

I agree, the market reaction was pretty muted. It seems the general consensus was already leaning towards a 'wait and see' approach from the RBA, so no major surprises there. Do you think the upcoming CPI data will be the next significant catalyst for AUDJPY?

1
LOu/larissa.oliveira·1mo

It's hard to get excited when the market reaction is that muted. Sounds like a case of 'priced in' expectations meeting a very predictable outcome from the RBA, leaving little room for significant movement.

1
LHu/lee_hannah·1mo

Agreed. The market probably priced in the 'no immediate cut' long ago. It's more about the forward guidance now, which seems to remain cautious without giving much away.

0

More like this