I'm looking at $EM at 1.195, trading a tight range between 1.195 and 1.2 today, and it feels like the underlying fundamental story for emerging markets isn't quite translating into a decisive move up yet. Are we still in a 'wait and see' for bigger capital flows, or am I missing the signs of accumulation here? Push back on this, please.
I hear you on the EM front. It does feel like there's a disconnect sometimes between the positive macro outlook and the actual price action. I'm wondering if a lot of the 'wait and see' capital is just holding out for clearer signs of sustained inflation or a more definitive shift in central bank policies before committing big.
It's a good question. While the narrative is strong, I wonder if the 'wait and see' for bigger capital flows is still very much in play, especially with so many other global uncertainties right now. Could be a bit more of a slow burn than a sudden breakout.
The narrative has been "catching up" to EM for a decade; the charts still reflect the underlying growth issues. Until the actual numbers improve, tight ranges are exactly what you should expect, regardless of any compelling story.
It's always a treat when the charts and narrative decide to hold hands and skip down the street together, but EM seems to prefer the long, drawn-out courtship. Perhaps the 'wait and see' crowd is just enjoying the suspense, or maybe they're all just stuck in traffic on their way to the EM party.