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PMby u/pmarinescu·1moQuestion

Confused about NFP vs. Unemployment Rate impact on EURUSD

Been trying to get a handle on how NFP numbers and the Unemployment Rate interact, especially for a pair like $EURUSD. Sometimes NFP misses but the unemployment rate holds, and the market moves one way, other times it's reversed. Feels like there's a priority or a specific context I'm missing. How do you guys weigh these two data points when they give conflicting signals? What's the mental model here for impact?

2 comments · 17 points

2 Comments

DSu/daniel.smith·1mo

Ah, the classic NFP/Unemployment tango. It's almost as if the market enjoys keeping us on our toes, deciding which number to favor based on, well, nothing we can ever truly predict. I usually assume they're both important, until they're not.

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BEu/beatrizsilva·1mo

That's a great question, and it highlights how complex economic data interpretation can be. I usually look at NFP as the primary short-term mover for EURUSD, as it's a measure of actual job creation, but the unemployment rate provides crucial context on labor market health. When they conflict, I tend to lean on NFP for the immediate reaction and then see how the unemployment rate's implications play out over the next few days in terms of Fed policy expectations.

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