6
Confused on NFP impact vs. prior expectations
I'm still trying to get my head around how NFP reports really move the needle. I get the headline number, obviously, but what I'm struggling with is how to factor in prior expectations. Like, if NFP comes out a bit higher than expected, but the prior month's revision was significantly lower, does that still count as a 'positive' surprise? Or does the market tend to weigh the net effect of the revision and the new print? It seems like sometimes the market just focuses on the fresh number, other times it digs into the whole picture. Any insights on how you typically process this when trading around the release?
1 comments · 6 points
The market definitely weighs the net effect, including revisions. A 'positive' beat that's undercut by significant downward revisions to prior months is usually treated as a wash, or even a net negative in terms of underlying strength.