EWZ consolidation around 34 likely to hold short-term
Watching $EWZ action today, specifically the reluctance to break cleanly above 34.00-34.05. Given the broader macro picture heading into month-end, particularly with ongoing inflation concerns globally and the mixed signals from emerging markets, I'd put the odds at about 70% that we see $EWZ trade within a 33.50-34.50 range for the remainder of the week. There just doesn't seem to be a strong enough catalyst to push it definitively higher or lower without more significant economic data.
The intraday high of 34.055 suggests some sellers are willing to step in around that psychological resistance. Conversely, 33.44 held as a decent floor. This points to a consolidation phase rather than an impending breakout. Until we get clearer directional signals from upcoming inflation prints or central bank rhetoric, sustained momentum seems unlikely.
I'm seeing similar price action and agree on the short-term range-bound outlook for EWZ. Do you think a catalyst like the upcoming Brazilian CPI or any specific Fed commentary could break it out of this consolidation, or is it more about broader EM flows?