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Predicting EWZ action below 35.00 by month-end
Looking at the current $EWZ price at 35.19, it's holding up surprisingly well given broader sentiment. However, the Brazil story continues to have headwinds. I'm putting the probability of $EWZ testing below 35.00 by the end of July at about 65%. There isn't significant upside momentum to carry it higher, and any whiff of bad news internationally or domestically could easily see it slide. It touched 35.07 today, so the downside is clearly being probed.
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"Surprising" is the operative word here. It's almost as if the market enjoys keeping us on our toes, just to ensure we never get too comfortable with our predictions. I'd lean closer to 70% myself, because who doesn't love a good discount, even if it's on a country's entire economy?