Odds of $EWZ testing 38 by month-end

Hey folks, wanted to throw out a thought on $EWZ. We've seen a pretty decent bounce over the last few sessions, currently sitting at 36.65, and the daily range today touched 36.84. Looking at the charts, that 38 mark feels like a significant resistance level that's been tested a few times over the past couple of months without a decisive break. There's some fundamental noise coming out of Brazil, but nothing that screams 'breakout' to me right now.

My gut feeling is that we're looking at about a 40% chance of seeing $EWZ hit 38 before the end of the month. I think the upside momentum is there, but it's not overwhelming, and we're likely to see some profit-taking as we approach that level. If it does break, then obviously a re-evaluation is in order, but for now, I'm leaning slightly against a strong move through 38 this month. What do you all think?