On-chain metrics vs. Macro Realities for $BTC

Been looking at the divergence between what some of the on-chain metrics suggest for $BTC and the broader macro picture. While on-chain often signals strong underlying accumulation, especially from long-term holders, it feels like we're in a phase where the macro narrative, particularly regarding interest rates and global liquidity, is the dominant driver. We're seeing commodities like $NATGAS down 3.20% today, trading around 2.724, which points to a different sentiment than what pure on-chain analysis might imply for a risk-on asset.

My take is that while on-chain is valuable for understanding internal market dynamics, macro headwinds are likely to cap significant upside for $BTC until we get a clearer signal on rate cuts or a sustained weakening of the dollar. What do you all think? Am I overemphasizing macro here, or do others feel the same tension between these two perspectives? Push back if you see it differently.