On-chain metrics and conviction vs. overthinking: How do you balance?

Alright, so I've been diving deeper into on-chain analysis for $BTC lately – NVT, SOPR, MVRV, all that good stuff. I can follow the general ideas, the historical context, and how they signal potential tops or bottoms. The problem is, sometimes when I see a couple of these metrics flash what looks like an 'overheated' signal, my instinct is to de-risk or even take a short position, even if the price action isn't screaming 'sell' yet.

Then, of course, the market can just keep grinding up, completely ignoring what these indicators suggest for a while, making me question everything. Other times, they call it perfectly. I'm wondering how the more experienced folks here integrate these sophisticated metrics without falling into analysis paralysis or, conversely, jumping the gun. Do you weigh on-chain signals differently depending on the macro environment, or is it more about finding a confluence with traditional technicals? How do you avoid letting the data override your initial trade thesis until it's genuinely broken?