Hang Seng Re-testing 18K by End of October?

Watching the Hang Seng closely heading into month-end. We've seen a fairly resilient bounce from the recent lows, but the overall economic backdrop for China remains a significant headwind. Property sector woes persist, and consumer confidence isn't exactly soaring. The current rally feels more like a technical correction within a downtrend rather than a true reversal.

I'm putting the odds at about 60% that HSI retests the 18,000 psychological level, if not slightly lower, by the end of October. The reasoning is multifaceted: continued earnings pressure from major constituents, potential for further negative sentiment around geopolitical tensions, and the general lack of a clear catalyst for sustained upside. While some might point to policy support, the effect has been more to temper losses than to ignite a bull run. Short-term bounces, like we saw with $NG today, can be volatile, but the underlying macro for HSI doesn't seem to support a break higher just yet. I'd expect any gains above 18,500 to be sold into.