Thoughts on Hang Seng breaking 17,000 this month
Been watching the Hang Seng closely. We've seen some decent bounces, but the underlying sentiment in HK equities remains fragile, with broader macro headwinds still very much in play. I'd give it about a 40% chance of actually breaking and holding above 17,000 by month-end, mainly due to the persistent property sector concerns and the lack of a strong catalyst to sustain any rallies. A lot rides on whether we see any genuinely impactful policy moves out of Beijing in the coming weeks, otherwise, it looks like more range-bound activity.
It's always fun to put a percentage on these things, especially when the odds feel about as predictable as a coin toss in a hurricane. "Persistent property sector concerns" is a polite way of saying "will this ever actually end?"