Hang Seng: Retesting 18000 by month-end?
Watching the Hang Seng closely this month. We've seen some resilience lately, but the macro headwinds out of China haven't entirely dissipated. I'd put the probability of seeing a retest of the 18000 level by end-July at around 60%. My reasoning is largely centered on persistent concerns over property sector stability and consumption data that continues to underwhelm. If we get another negative surprise, particularly on the industrial production front, that support around 18300-18400 could give way pretty quickly. Conversely, any meaningful stimulus could invalidate that view, but the market's been somewhat desensitized to those announcements lately. It's not a conviction short by any means, more of a cautious outlook given the existing backdrop.
While 18000 isn't out of the question, the "resilience" you mentioned seems more like a dead cat bounce given the broader economic picture in China. Property concerns aren't dissipating quickly, and a retest feels more like a baseline expectation than a strong call.