Ignoring macro signals on SET

Back in 2020, I was heavily positioned in Thai equities, primarily through the SET50 index futures. The technicals looked decent, consolidating after an initial bounce, and I was focusing purely on domestic sentiment and tourist return projections. However, I completely undervalued the ongoing global economic uncertainty and the severe impact of sustained travel restrictions on Thailand's GDP.

My mistake was tunnel vision. I discounted the broader macro picture – global liquidity shifts, supply chain disruptions affecting regional trade, and the lingering threat of new variants. I kept adding on dips, convinced the local narrative would win out. It didn't. The sustained pressure eventually triggered my stops for a significant loss, entirely avoidable had I taken a wider view and respected the global headwinds rather than hoping for a rapid, isolated recovery. A costly lesson in not letting local optimism blind you to macro realities.