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SAby u/sarah55·6dDiscussion

The time gold decided to humble me, hard

It was late 2020, gold ($XAUUSD) was bouncing around what felt like a new trading range after its big run. I'd been doing okay, catching some decent moves on oil and copper, and felt like I had a pretty good read on market sentiment. Then came the 'brilliant' idea to short gold on what I perceived as a clear rejection of a key resistance level. My analysis, at the time, was sound on paper: bearish divergence on the RSI, lower highs on the daily, decent volume on the rejection candle. I set my stop, sized my position appropriately for the risk I identified, and felt quite pleased with myself.

What I failed to account for, or perhaps just plain ignored in my hubris, was the sheer number of macro factors still supporting gold as a safe haven, even if it was consolidating. The market didn't care about my pretty chart patterns when the news wires started humming about renewed geopolitical tensions. My stop got taken out, not by a whisker, but by a freight train. Then, in a moment of pure, unadulterated stupidity, I immediately re-entered the short, moving my stop just a little wider this time, because "surely it wouldn't go much higher." It did. And then some. I ended up giving back about three weeks of solid gains in less than two days. The lesson? Even when your technicals look pristine, macro can and will run you over. And moving your stop out of hope is a guaranteed way to bleed out slowly, then quickly. Never again.

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1 Comments

MMu/macro_mariamUnited Arab Emirates·6d

It's interesting how often the market decides to teach us lessons right when we think we've got it figured out. What was the ultimate lesson you took away from that particular gold trade?

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