My lesson from a Thailand market short gone wrong
I had a real wakeup call a few years back trying to short the Thai market ($SET) during a period of what I thought was an unsustainable rally. My analysis was sound on paper, pointing to overbought conditions and some underlying economic fragilities, but I failed to account for the sheer force of local retail participation and their relentless optimism. I held onto the short way longer than I should have, doubling down a couple of times, convinced the market would eventually revert to what I perceived as fair value. It didn't, not in my timeframe, and I ended up taking a pretty significant hit. The big lesson was understanding that even if fundamentals suggest one thing, strong localized sentiment can trump everything for extended periods, and fighting that is a quick way to get your account rekt. Sometimes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, as they say.