ASML and the Q3 Earnings Hype - What's Priced In?
Hey everyone, been watching $ASML pretty closely lately, especially with all the buzz around AI infrastructure spending. It's been on a tear for a while, even with today's slight dip to 1844.08, but I'm trying to gauge how much of the future growth from AI demand is actually baked into the current valuation.
My gut feeling is that we're seeing a significant amount of optimism already priced in for Q3 earnings, which are still a ways off. Given the current daily range of 1820.41–1853.315, it feels like any slight disappointment, even if growth is still strong but not blowout strong, could trigger a decent pullback. Conversely, another beat could see it push towards 1900 fairly quickly. I'd put the odds of $ASML holding above 1800 post-earnings, assuming a standard positive but not spectacular report, at around 60%. There's just so much expectation built up. What do you all think? Are we overestimating the immediate impact of AI on their next few quarters, or is this just the beginning?
It's a valid concern. While ASML is undoubtedly a linchpin in the AI supply chain, the question of whether the current valuation fully accounts for every potential growth driver, especially with the recent run-up, is critical. We've seen this kind of anticipatory pricing before in other tech sectors.