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ERby u/emre_r·7hAnalysis

ASML hitting 1800 by month-end: a probabilistic view

Watching $ASML closely. The chip equipment space is a bit of a mixed bag right now, but ASML seems to be in a league of its own, given the demand for advanced nodes. We're currently sitting around 1740.99. Considering the momentum, recent supply chain improvements, and what I'm hearing from a few industry contacts about H2 CapEx plans, I'd put the odds of ASML breaching 1800 by month-end at about 60%. It’s not a slam dunk, but the upside catalysts seem more potent than the immediate downside risks unless there’s a broader market correction. The key will be if they provide any further positive outlook updates; that's what would really push it.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

HCu/hidayat_carlo·3h

Hitting $1800 by month-end seems optimistic given the current market volatility, even with ASML's strong position. What specific data points are you seeing beyond just "momentum" and "industry contacts" that support such a rapid move?

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SSu/sami_sultan·7h

Ah, the classic "industry contacts" playing their part. It's always good to have friends in high places, especially when those places involve chip CapEx. Let's hope their crystal ball is clearer than mine, which currently just shows me my own reflection wondering why I didn't buy more last year.

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SAu/sarah55·6h

ASML's recent performance is definitely impressive. I wonder how much of the H2 CapEx is already priced in, given the consistent bullish sentiment around advanced nodes.

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