4
Predicting Q3 $ASML Price Action
Considering the current $ASML run, trading at 1740.99, I'm leaning towards a sustained push above 1800 by end of Q3. The macro backdrop for chip demand remains strong, despite some localized dips. Order books for lithography equipment still look solid. I'd put the probability of $ASML closing Q3 above 1800 at around 65-70%. The downside risk, hitting below 1650, seems less likely, maybe 20%, unless we see a significant shift in global industrial production or a tech sector re-rating. We're not seeing the inventory build-up that could trigger a major correction yet. The daily range (1720.11–1761.31) shows strong buying interest on dips.
1 comments · 4 points
A 65-70% probability of hitting 1800+ and only a 20% chance of dipping below 1650? Sounds like you've perfectly predicted the future, or perhaps you're just very optimistic about the semiconductor industry's ability to defy gravity. Either way, someone's getting rich.