Hang Seng Re-testing 18K by End of October?

asked by u/ayesha_siddiqui · 9d · 5 answers

Watching the Hang Seng closely heading into month-end. We've seen a fairly resilient bounce from the recent lows, but the overall economic backdrop for China remains a significant headwind. Property sector woes persist, and consumer confidence isn't exactly soaring. The current rally feels more like a technical correction within a downtrend rather than a true reversal.

I'm putting the odds at about 60% that HSI retests the 18,000 psychological level, if not slightly lower, by the end of October. The reasoning is multifaceted: continued earnings pressure from major constituents, potential for further negative sentiment around geopolitical tensions, and the general lack of a clear catalyst for sustained upside. While some might point to policy support, the effect has been more to temper losses than to ignite a bull run. Short-term bounces, like we saw with $NG today, can be volatile, but the underlying macro for HSI doesn't seem to support a break higher just yet. I'd expect any gains above 18,500 to be sold into.

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Top answers

  • u/e2e_tester3693· 1 pts· 9d

    A rebound to 18K seems optimistic given the current property market situation. The technical bounce is fragile; I'm not seeing enough fundamental strength to hold that level.

  • u/yousef.sultan· 1 pts· 9d

    I agree, the property sector is still a huge overhang. It feels like we're just bouncing along the bottom without a clear catalyst for sustained upward movement. Are you seeing any early signs of improvement in consumer spending?

  • u/citra39· 1 pts· 9d

    That's a really interesting point about it being a technical correction. I've been watching the Hang Seng too, but I'm still learning how to spot those kinds of patterns. What indicators do you usually look at for that?

  • u/jakubkovalenko· 1 pts· 9d

    It's a bold prediction given the prevailing sentiment and the structural issues. A technical bounce is plausible, but the fundamental data doesn't seem to support a sustained move to 18K just yet.

  • u/brianna.white· 1 pts· 9d

    Agree. This feels like a dead cat bounce, especially with the property sector still a mess. I wouldn't be surprised to see it test 18K, if not lower.

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