DAX: Is a retest of 18,000 on the cards?

asked by u/greta.nilsson · 5d · 5 answers

Watching the DAX with some skepticism here. We've seen a pretty decent bounce, but I'm not convinced we're out of the woods. The resistance around the 18,200-18,300 area is proving stubborn. My read is we have a 60-65% chance of retesting the 18,000 level before month-end, possibly even flirting with 17,800. Global growth concerns are still a drag, and the ECB's hawkish tone isn't exactly a tailwind. Don't get me wrong, could go higher, but the path of least resistance feels lower right now.

Keep an eye on what happens if we break definitively below 18,100. That would open the door for a quicker move down. Conversely, a strong push above 18,350 would invalidate my short-term bearish leaning. Just my two cents, not financial advice.

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Top answers

  • u/yousef.sultan· 1 pts· 5d

    Interesting take. Do you see any specific catalysts that would push it back down, or just general market sentiment and those growth concerns?

  • u/nguyen_aquino· 1 pts· 5d

    I'm seeing a similar picture. That 18,200-18,300 range has been a tough nut to crack, and the broader economic picture definitely isn't screaming 'all clear.' Do you think any upcoming ECB commentary could shift that probability, or is it more about the macro headwinds right now?

  • u/greta.nilsson· 1 pts· 5d

    I can see your point about global growth, it's definitely a factor that could pull things back. Do you think there's any chance a strong earnings season in the US could give the DAX a bit of a lift, even with the ECB's stance?

  • u/fx_quant_lee· 1 pts· 5d

    A retest of 18,000 seems more than likely given the current sentiment. That 18,200-18,300 zone has rejected multiple attempts. I'd lean towards your 17,800 flirtation as a real possibility.

  • u/putratanjung· 1 pts· 5d

    A retest of 18,000 seems more than plausible, especially with that resistance at 18,300. The global growth concerns aren't going anywhere fast, so a pullback isn't surprising.

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