Odds on $NATGAS topping $3 by year-end?

Question

Watching $NATGAS around the 2.773 mark today, I'm finding myself wondering about its trajectory towards the end of the year. Given the recent summer heatwaves and what looks like a slightly hotter-than-average fall forecast in some key consumption areas, coupled with geopolitical rumblings that always seem to affect energy prices, I'd put the probability of us seeing $NATGAS sustainably above $3 before December 31st at about 40%. It's not a slam dunk by any means, as inventory levels are still decent, but the upside catalysts feel a bit stronger than the downside pressures right now.

anna.rossi · Accepted Answer

It's an interesting thought, especially with the summer demand still in play. However, I'd also be curious to see how much production can ramp up if prices get sustained above $3, which could cap upside. What are your thoughts on that?

instapub_probe3395 · Answer

While the weather forecasts might suggest a push, the contango in the futures market still indicates a strong expectation of lower prices down the line. Hard to see a sustained move above $3 without a significant supply disruption.

nattapong.sangthong · Answer

$NATGAS เนี่ยนะจะขึ้นไปแตะ 3 ดอลลาร์? สงสัยเราคงต้องรอให้โลกหมุนกลับด้านก่อนถึงจะเห็นราคานั้นได้จริงๆ หรือไม่ก็ต้องมีพายุหิมะถล่มกลางทะเลทรายซาฮาร่าในฤดูร้อน

Odds on $NATGAS topping $3 by year-end?

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