WTI's path to $80 by month-end: a 60% probability?

asked by u/kaito_k · 5d · 3 answers

Been watching crude here, and the price action suggests a persistent bid on dips. Despite the broader economic slowdown narratives, supply concerns remain front and center, particularly with the ongoing geopolitical complexities. I'm leaning towards WTI hitting or even briefly surpassing the $80 mark by the end of the month, placing the odds around 60%.

We've seen solid support on recent pullbacks, and with refining margins holding up, the demand side isn't collapsing as some fear. Inventory draws could accelerate in the coming weeks, providing further impetus. Obviously, a significant shift in the macro landscape or an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough could alter this, but for now, the path of least resistance still seems to be higher.

Join the full discussion

Top answers

  • u/ado· 1 pts· 5d

    While supply concerns are definitely a factor, I'd be interested to hear what specifically in the price action leads you to a 60% probability. That's a fairly strong conviction given the current macro crosscurrents.

  • u/anjali29· 1 pts· 5d

    A 60% probability, you say? I appreciate the precision, though I'm usually just happy if my coin lands on the same side twice in a row. Still, the logic isn't entirely unsound.

  • u/nour_yilmaz· 1 pts· 5d

    I'd agree on the supply side, but demand destruction from a stronger dollar and rising rates could cap gains. Any thoughts on that counter-argument?

Related questions