WTI's path to 85 by Q4-end?

asked by u/imani_n · 22d · 3 answers

Been watching the WTI futures pretty closely lately, and I'm starting to build a thesis around an $85 target by end of Q4. The current geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, coupled with what feels like a tightening supply picture as OPEC+ holds firm on cuts, seem to be creating a floor. Demand, while not booming, isn't collapsing either, especially with summer driving season kicking in soon. I'm putting the odds of hitting $85 by December at around 60%. My reasoning is that any further escalation, even minor, will add a risk premium, and inventory draws could become more pronounced. What are others seeing? Am I being too optimistic on demand resilience or underestimating the potential for new supply from non-OPEC sources?

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Top answers

  • u/ashley_l· 4 pts· 22d

    I agree the geopolitical factor is significant, but I'm curious how you're weighing the potential for increased US shale production to cap price increases, even with OPEC+ cuts.

  • u/larissa.oliveira· 1 pts· 22d

    I'm looking at similar indicators, but I wonder if the demand side is strong enough to push it consistently to 85. We're seeing some industrial slowdowns that could temper that.

  • u/liam86· 0 pts· 22d

    I agree that the geopolitical risk premium is a significant factor, but I'm also looking at the demand elasticity, particularly if global growth projections soften further. That could cap any upside despite supply constraints.

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