Saudi Exchange

Been watching the general sentiment around EM currencies lately, particularly with some of the recent noise out of China. I'm seeing a lot of analysts calling for continued depreciation, but when I look at the charts, it feels like we're approaching some interesting support levels. Take the BRL for instance, it's been a bit of a rollercoaster, but if we can hold around the 4.90 area against the USD, I think there's a decent argument for some mean reversion. The risk, of course, is if we get a stronger-than-expected US CPI print next week, that could easily send the DXY higher and break through those key support levels, pushing EM FX lower across the board. It's a tricky balance between macro sentiment and technicals right now.

Watching $EEM closely here around the 64.40 level. It's pushing up against that resistance zone we've seen multiple rejections from over the past few weeks. If it can cleanly break and hold above 64.50, I'd expect a push towards 65.50-66.00 pretty quickly. However, a failure to breach this current level could easily send it back down to retest the 63.00-63.20 support, maybe even lower if the momentum fades completely. The risk to any upside scenario is a rejection here and a close below 64.00, which would suggest this is just another top-side probe that's failing.

I've been looking at some LatAm exposures, specifically how corporate treasuries might manage $BRL or $MXN exposure when local inflation runs significantly higher than the hedger's base currency. Standard forward points account for interest rate differentials, which often align with inflation differentials, but sometimes the spread is quite volatile, or there's a significant risk premium baked in. Are institutions generally just accepting the forward costs and hoping for trade benefits, or are there more dynamic strategies for hedging the real value of these FX exposures, especially given the costs involved?

Odds are tilting towards continued pressure on EM currencies through Q3, especially those with higher external debt and reliance on commodity exports. The current $SPCX price action at 108.37, down significantly, suggests broader risk-off sentiment is deepening rather than easing. My read is we have a 65% probability of $SPCX retesting the 107.57 low from today, potentially by month-end, and a 40% chance of breaking it decisively. The reasoning stems from tightening global liquidity, persistent inflation concerns in developed markets leading to hawkish central bank rhetoric, and the knock-on effect on capital flows out of perceived riskier assets. EM central banks are caught between a rock and a hard place: either hike rates further to defend currencies at the expense of growth, or allow depreciation to fuel imported inflation. I'm leaning towards the former becoming less palatable for many, leading to further currency weakness against the USD, and equity market underperformance.

It seems $ADBE is finding some tentative support around the 250-251 area today after that little dip. If it breaks convincingly below 250 on decent volume, I'd have to re-evaluate the short-term bullish outlook.

I'm looking at $KWEB and it seems to be holding around the 28.50-28.70 area for now, which has been a minor support zone recently. If it breaks convincingly below 28.50, I'd expect more downside, but a sustained push above 28.80 could indicate a potential move towards 29.50. Just my thoughts, definitely could be wrong.

Thought I'd share a personal lesson learned the hard way. A few years back, $ADBE gapped up huge on an earnings beat. I had been watching it, knew it was a quality company, but hadn't taken a position. The FOMO hit hard, and I jumped in right at the open, paying a premium. My logic was "it's strong, it'll keep going." What I ignored was the massive move it had already made pre-market and the potential for profit-taking. Sure enough, it consolidated for a bit, then drifted lower, and I ended up closing for a loss a few days later, right before it actually resumed its uptrend without me. The mistake wasn't the company; it was ignoring my own entry criteria and letting emotion dictate a chase after the move had already happened. Patience is truly a virtue in this game.

Still trying to wrap my head around the best way to manage positions as they move. For those of you who scale, do you prefer to scale out of a winning position to lock in profit, or scale into a strong one to build conviction, or does it completely depend on the setup?