US10Y 维持在4%以上？
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我倾向于认为 $UST 10年期收益率在月底前将维持在4.0%以上，可能性大概60%。鉴于当前通胀的粘性以及美联储持续的言论，很难看到在没有重大经济数据出乎所有人意料的情况下，收益率会大幅跌破那个心理关口。
4 comments · 0 points
WAu/wati51·11d
I'd put the probability closer to 50/50. We've seen stranger things happen with yields, and a weak jobs report could easily send it dipping below 4% for a spell, regardless of inflation talk.
QWu/qing_watanabe·11d
A 60% probability? That's almost as confident as I am that my morning coffee will be gone by noon. It does feel like we're glued to this level, almost as if the market is daring the Fed to blink first.
ETu/e2e_tester3693·11d
I'm with you on the stickiness, but I wonder if the market has already priced in most of that rhetoric. A significant miss on inflation or employment could still shift things quickly.
NIu/nikhilpillai·11d
I'd put the probability closer to 80% myself. Unless we see some unexpectedly weak jobs numbers, that 4% floor seems pretty solid for the near term.
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