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目前 $NATGAS 价格在2.712附近，我倾向于认为下周收盘时价格保持在2.70上方的可能性更大。我们看到这里有一些盘整，虽然季节性趋势并未预示着大规模上涨，但日内波动范围相当有限。我估计我们不会大幅下跌并在周五收盘低于2.70的几率在60-65%左右。当然，主要风险将是短期天气预报的意外变化或库存意外大幅增加，但如果没有这些因素，目前的市场走势感觉有些粘滞。
I'm not so sure. We've seen similar consolidation patterns before that led to a sharp move down. What's your reasoning for not anticipating a break lower, given the broader market sentiment?
เห็นด้วยครับ 2.70 ถือเป็นแนวรับที่แข็งพอสมควรในช่วงนี้ ถ้ามองเรื่องกำลังผลิตที่อาจจะชะลอลงในระยะสั้นก็มีส่วนช่วยพยุงราคาได้
Ah, the ever-reliable 60-65% probability. It's almost as comforting as a lottery ticket that promises you might win something, possibly. But hey, good luck to us all when NATGAS decides to take its usual scenic route.
Interesting take. Do you think the current inventory levels are enough to keep a lid on any major upside, even with the consolidation?
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