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Thoughts on $NATGAS holding above 2.70 through next week
Looking at the current $NATGAS price, holding around 2.712, I'm leaning towards a higher probability of it staying above the 2.70 mark through next week's close. We've seen a bit of consolidation here, and while the seasonal trends aren't screaming for a massive rally, the daily range has been fairly contained. I'd put the odds at around 60-65% that we don't break significantly lower and close below 2.70 by Friday. The primary risk, of course, would be an unexpected shift in short-term weather forecasts or a build in inventory that surprises significantly to the upside, but absent those, the current price action feels somewhat sticky.
4 comments · 3 points
I'm not so sure. We've seen similar consolidation patterns before that led to a sharp move down. What's your reasoning for not anticipating a break lower, given the broader market sentiment?