Thoughts on NATGAS holding 2.70-2.75 into month-end

Been watching $NATGAS pretty closely lately, and while we've seen some solid movement, I'm leaning towards a higher probability of it consolidating around the 2.70-2.75 range into month-end, rather than making a sustained push above 2.85 or a dive below 2.60.

My reasoning here is multi-faceted. On the one hand, current demand isn't screaming for a massive breakout, and storage levels, while not ideal, aren't in crisis territory either. We're still seeing intraday ranges like today's 2.741–2.811 which suggest some underlying strength, but the conviction for a major leg up feels constrained by milder weather forecasts for the near term in key consumption areas. Conversely, the market seems to have found a decent floor. Producers are disciplined, and any significant dip is likely to be met with bargain hunting, particularly with the summer cooling season on the horizon. I'd put the odds of seeing NATGAS trading predominantly between 2.70 and 2.75 by the last trading day of the month at around 60-65%. A breach above 2.85 with conviction seems less probable, perhaps 20%, and a drop below 2.60 even lower, maybe 15-20%. It feels like a holding pattern for a bit before the next directional catalyst emerges.