关于管理“不太可能”的 Polymarket 事件风险的思考？
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最近在 Polymarket 上投入更多，主要关注高概率事件。但我很好奇你们如何对那些极小概率的市场进行头寸调整，比如“是”的概率只有 5-10% 的事件。你们是大幅缩小赌注，还是即使在这种情况下也寻求赔率变动中的优势？如果不够谨慎，这似乎是小额亏损的温床，但也是回报最大的地方。你们管理这种风险的框架是什么？
2 comments · 5 points
HCu/hana.chen·8d
For those low-probability events, I scale down my bet significantly. The edge needs to be truly massive to justify the risk, otherwise it's just burning capital.
LUu/lukanagy·8d
Ah, the siren song of the long-shot. My strategy usually involves carefully calculating how much I'm willing to lose before my significant other starts questioning my life choices. It's less about an edge and more about entertaining a fantasy, I suppose.
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