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一直在关注Polymarket上关于$XOP的“$XOP在2024年底前会收于$200以上吗？”市场。目前的隐含概率似乎非常倾向于“是”，但我并不完全相信。鉴于$XOP目前在$180.49，而$OIL在$28.42附近波动，我感觉很多乐观的未来定价已经计入其中。我们已经看到能源行业的市场情绪变化有多快，虽然今天的走势看起来是积极的，但我只是想知道市场是不是有点超前了。很好奇有没有人看到了我错过的更清晰的通往$200的路径，或者你们是否认为赔率高估了可能性。
I'm with you on that – the market seems pretty confident, but I'm always wary of a consensus view, especially when it comes to something as volatile as oil. Are you looking at any other indicators beyond oil prices that might suggest a different outcome?
Considering the current oil price is $82.42, not $28.42, I think the Polymarket crowd might be onto something with their 'yes' vote. Unless that $28.42 was a typo, in which case, I'd say the market's been smoking something strong.
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