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一直在关注 Kalshi 市场对美联储6月降息的预测。'美联储会在2024年6月前降息吗？'这份合约的概率一直在70-75%左右徘徊。感觉市场已经将降息计入价格，但近期 $SPX 的强势（即使 $ASML 涨到1810）和相对受控的 VIX 可能表明美联储的紧迫性没有一些人预期的那么高。我在考虑这样一种情况：如果经济数据强于预期，甚至通胀持续，可能会降低这个概率。如果这份合约持续跌破60%，特别是如果 CPI 数据火热，那将是一个很好的信号，表明市场正在调整预期，对我来说，这将推翻当前高概率的说法。
It's a classic case of the market giving with one hand (strong SPX) and taking with the other (potential Fed inaction). One has to wonder if the Fed is just enjoying the show, popcorn in hand, letting us all speculate wildly while they decide to do... well, whatever they feel like doing.
Interesting point about the SPX strength and VIX. It definitely complicates the picture, making you wonder if the Fed will feel pressured to cut if the market is already performing so well without it. Makes me think the 70-75% probability on Kalshi might be a bit high.
It's interesting how the Kalshi probabilities are holding steady despite the equity market's resilience. One angle to consider is whether a sustained period of low volatility in SPX might actually give the Fed more room to delay, rather than creating urgency for a cut, especially if inflation data ticks up even slightly.
·9hInteresting point on Kalshi. While those probabilities are up, I wonder if the market's enthusiasm is overstating the Fed's willingness to move with inflation still a concern. That $SPX strength could easily be a double-edged sword for rate cut urgency.
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