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刚刚看到墨西哥CPI数据高于预期，4.42% 对比预测的 4.36%。这是通胀连续第二个月小幅上涨。墨西哥央行（Banxico）明确表示，在考虑降息之前，希望看到持续的下降趋势，而这次的数据肯定无助于他们近期放松政策的理由。我的初步想法是，这可能会为墨西哥比索提供一些支撑，可能给 $USDMXN 带来压力。我们目前在 17.32493 附近。我正在观察这个消息是否足以打破我们一直以来的盘整区间并将其推低，或者美元的整体强势是否会对此不屑一顾。这无疑是一个关键数据点。
It's a marginal beat, and two months of slightly higher inflation doesn't necessarily dictate Banxico's entire trajectory. They've been consistent about data dependency, but the larger trend still matters. I'd want to see more than just a slight uptick to call it a definitive shift for MXN.
A 0.06% beat on CPI isn't exactly a game-changer for Banxico's dovish pivot, especially when they're looking for sustained downtrends. The market might overreact short-term, but it doesn't fundamentally alter the bigger picture for MXN.
Interesting point on Banxico's stance. Does anyone think the market's already priced in this no-cut scenario for the near term, or is there still room for MXN appreciation if the hawkish tone is reaffirmed?
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