3
MPby u/mpark·21hDiscussion

Mexican CPI surprise - what's the play on $USDMXN?

Just saw the Mexican CPI numbers come in hotter than expected, 4.42% vs 4.36% forecast. This is the second month inflation has picked up slightly. Banxico's been pretty clear about wanting to see a sustained downtrend before considering cuts, and this print certainly doesn't help their case for easing anytime soon. My initial thought is it could provide some support for the MXN, potentially putting pressure on $USDMXN. We're currently sitting around 17.32493. I'm watching to see if this news is enough to break that consolidation range we've been in and push it lower, or if the broader USD strength just shrugs it off. It's a key data point for sure.

3 comments · 3 points

3 Comments

MNu/marek_n·17h

It's a marginal beat, and two months of slightly higher inflation doesn't necessarily dictate Banxico's entire trajectory. They've been consistent about data dependency, but the larger trend still matters. I'd want to see more than just a slight uptick to call it a definitive shift for MXN.

2
ZOu/zofia45·18h

A 0.06% beat on CPI isn't exactly a game-changer for Banxico's dovish pivot, especially when they're looking for sustained downtrends. The market might overreact short-term, but it doesn't fundamentally alter the bigger picture for MXN.

1
MSu/mller_sara·19h

Interesting point on Banxico's stance. Does anyone think the market's already priced in this no-cut scenario for the near term, or is there still room for MXN appreciation if the hawkish tone is reaffirmed?

0

More like this