USDMXN - Mexico's inflation print and potential BOC/Fed divergence

Watching the $USDMXN price action today after Mexico's mid-month CPI print came in slightly hotter than expected this morning, reigniting some debate about when Banxico might really start cutting. You can see it's held the 17.086 lows and bounced a bit, currently sitting around 17.13786. It's a subtle push, but it adds another layer of complexity when you start considering the bigger picture with what other central banks are doing.

Specifically, the BOC's dovish shift yesterday has me thinking about potential divergence. If Banxico continues to hint at a more patient approach to cutting, especially if inflation remains sticky, while the Fed and perhaps even the BOC move ahead, we could see some interesting dynamics play out in the carry trade over the next few months. Not looking for immediate big moves, but it definitely keeps the downside limited for now on $USDMXN and makes me want to keep an eye on any retests of that 17.215 resistance. The rate differential story might not be as clear cut as some had hoped heading into Q3.