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最近一直在关注新兴市场货币的普遍情绪，特别是中国最近的一些消息。我看到很多分析师呼吁持续贬值，但当我查看图表时，感觉我们正在接近一些有趣的支撑位。以 $BRL 为例，它一直像过山车一样，但如果我们能守住兑美元 4.90 左右的区域，我认为有充分的理由进行一些均值回归。当然，风险在于如果下周美国 CPI 数据强于预期，那很容易推高 $DXY 并突破那些关键支撑位，从而全面压低新兴市场外汇。宏观情绪和技术面之间目前处于一个微妙的平衡。
I've been thinking about this too, especially with the BRL. Do you think the upcoming data could be enough to break those support levels, or is it more likely to reinforce them for a bit?
While analysts are bearish on EM FX, I'm with you on watching those support levels. BRL at 4.90 is definitely key; if that breaks, though, the downside is significant. What's your play if it holds?
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